Penguin Random House is the largest trade publishing company in the world. Accurate and timely forecasting is foundational to our business model, helping us plan demand, manage inventory, orchestrate our supply chain, and allocate resources. Improving forecast quality has a direct downstream impact on operational and financial outcomes. 

We are investing in expanding our portfolio of business-critical forecasts and further improving our existing models. This role will own forecasting work end-to-end from model development to deployment to output monitoring, in close partnership with business stakeholders, platform engineers, and the rest of the forecasting group. 

We have a mature machine learning practice and strong infrastructure, supported by strong data warehouse and DevOps partners. We are transitioning to AI-accelerated development and use modern agentic coding tools like Claude Code to speed up how we build and maintain forecasting systems, with rigorous quality gates including tests, reproducible workflows, and measurable improvements in model performance and reliability. Experience with Claude Code or agentic workflows is a plus, but we prioritize strong fundamentals and the ability and willingness to learn new workflows effectively. 

Specific responsibilities include: 

• Own end-to-end forecasting systems: model development, evaluation, and production operation (deployment partnership, monitoring, refresh cadence, reliability, and iteration). 

• Build forecasting models across horizons and segments, choosing approaches appropriate to the business context and improving both accuracy and stakeholder usability. 

• Create and maintain a forecasting evaluation harness that makes quality repeatable and production-safe, including backtesting, error analysis, uncertainty quantification, and automated checks (tests, regression checks, data validation). 

• Build agentic workflows that automate repetitive forecasting tasks such as feature generation, backtest reporting, regression detection, and documentation, with human review and measurable quality gates. 

• Define success metrics tied to business outcomes and communicate assumptions, limitations, and risk so forecasts are used correctly. 

• Partner with stakeholders across operations, supply chain, inventory management, finance, and marketing to translate needs into a clear technical plan and measurable impact. 

Please apply if you meet the following qualifications: 

• 5+ years of professional experience in machine learning or applied data science, including shipping models into production or operational workflows

• Strong forecasting expertise, including time-series methods, feature engineering, and rigorous evaluation/backtesting

• Strong probability and statistics fundamentals; comfort with probabilistic forecasting and explaining uncertainty in practical terms

• Strong proficiency in Python and SQL; ability to write production-quality, testable software

• Strong communication and cross-functional collaboration skills with non-technical stakeholders 

Preferred qualifications:

• PhD in a quantitative discipline (or equivalent practical experience)

• Experience with probabilistic forecasting, hierarchical forecasting, and calibration techniques

• Experience building evaluation infrastructure for ML systems (tests, regression checks, data validation, monitoring/alerting)

• Experience using AI-assisted and agentic development workflows responsibly (verification loops, reproducibility, automated checks)

• Experience integrating forecasting with optimization or decision science where appropriate

Please be advised that candidates selected to advance to the 1st round of interviews will be required to show photo ID on camera, and final interviews for this role will be in person at a Penguin Random House location.

The salary range for this position is $160,000 - $210,000. All positions are currently eligible for an annual profit award or bonus, subject to company results.  

 Applications for this role will be accepted through February 28, 2026 or until the role is filled. We encourage you to apply early, as we review applications on a rolling basis. Please include your resume and cover letter for consideration. Before applying for any role at Penguin Random House, we recommend you review our applicant resources page and our FAQs page.

Penguin Random House job postings include a good faith compensation range for each open position. The salary range listed is specific to each particular open position and takes into account various factors including the specifics of the individual role, and candidate's relevant experience and qualifications.

Full-time employees are eligible for our comprehensive benefits program. Our range of benefits include, but are not limited to, Medical/Prescription drug insurance, Dental, Vision, Health Care/Dependent Care Flexible Spending Account, Health Savings Account, Pre-Tax and Roth 401(k), Short and Long-Term Disability Insurance, Life/AD&D Insurance, Commuter Benefits, Student Loan Repayment Program, Educational Assistance & generous paid time off.

Penguin Random House is the leading adult and children's publishing house in North America, the United Kingdom and many other regions around the world. In publishing the best books in every genre and subject for all ages, we are committed to quality, excellence in execution, and innovation throughout the entire publishing process: editorial, design, marketing, publicity, sales, production, and distribution. Our vibrant and diverse international community of nearly 300 publishing brands and imprints include Ballantine Bantam Dell, Berkley, Clarkson Potter, Crown, DK, Doubleday, Dutton, Grosset & Dunlap, Little Golden Books, Knopf, Modern Library, Pantheon, Penguin Books, Penguin Press, Penguin Random House Audio, Penguin Young Readers, Portfolio, Puffin, Putnam, Random House, Random House Children's Books, Riverhead, Ten Speed Press, Viking, and Vintage, among others. More information can be found at http://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/.

Penguin Random House values the array of talents and perspectives that a diverse workforce brings. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, national origin, religion, age, color, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, disability, or protected veteran status.

 Company: Penguin Random House LLC | Job ID: 286581